United States
Fire-mediated changes in the Alaskan Boreal Forest: Interactions of
changing climate and human activities
Project Summary
Recent economic and climatic changes in interior Alaska have resulted
in a decline in the well-being of rural residents and a decrease in the
resilience of the region to respond to projected future changes. Fire has
traditionally been an important part of ecosystem regulation in this region.
The goal of this assessment is to document the changing role of fire, particularly
as affected by human activities, on the boreal system and its human residents,
and to explore alternative scenarios of future changes that may affect human
well-being.
The study site is the Yukon River drainage of interior Alaska and western
Canada (63.5–68_N; 130–160_W), and the project time frame is September 2007
to September 2010.
The study is designed to take into account multiple spatial and time
scales. The multiple spatial scales are: the boreal forest of western North
America, which contains two countries (Yukon Territory in Canada, and Alaska
in the United States), within which smaller regions centered on two communities
in each country are studied. Within these communities, long-term trends
spanning the period 1800–2100 are assessed, with intensive study and projection
of trends for the period 1950–2050. The assessment focuses primarily on
ecosystem provisioning services that are strongly affected by changes in
climate and fire regime; and on a set of management policies that influence
the relationships between fire, ecosystem services, and human well-being.
Fire and climate warming alter climate regulation at large(r) spatial
scales by changing vegetation composition, energy exchange within the atmosphere,
and carbon balance. This study examines how these ecological changes either
amplify or buffer the rate of climatic warming. Additionally, the effect
of feedback from these phenomena on state/territory and national policies
of carbon sequestration and fire suppression will also be examined.
Provisioning, regulating, and cultural services, such as subsistence
foods (for example, game, berries, and firewood), are affected by climate
warming and fire. Economic opportunities and risks (for example, wages and
property risk), and cultural ties to the land (as reflected in altered subsistence
activities, rural-urban migration, and forest harvest) are also assessed
in the study. The landscape pattern of these changes determines the consequences
for use by local communities.
Assessment Approach
Ecosystem modeling (the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model or TEM) and policy
analysis are the primary tools used to study the large-scale processes of
climate regulation in this assessment. Interviews with subsistence users
and ecological observations are used in the assessment to determine the
extent and impact of changes in subsistence foods. The Alaska Frame Based
Ecosystem Code (ALFRESCO) landscape modeling is used to explore how future
changes in climate-fire-vegetation interactions might alter fire regime
and ecosystem services.
Records of fires, employment, and community income are used to assess
the positive and negative economic effects of fires on communities. Additionally,
the assessment analyses the condition and trends through stand-age reconstructions
maps of fires since 1950, and interviews with elders. Landscape modeling
is used to explore alternative scenarios, especially the potential effects
of policy and management on the ecosystem services and drivers of change
in the ecosystems.
Project team and institutions
- Stuart Chapin (team leader, ecosystem ecologist), University of
Alaska
- Dave McGuire (ecosystem modeler), University of Alaska
- Scott Rupp (landscape modeler), University of Alaska
- Tony Starfield (conservation modeler), University of Minnesota
- Erica Zavaleta (ecologist/anthropologist), University of California,
Santa Cruz
- Henry Huntington (anthropologist), private consultant, Alaska
- David Natcher (anthropologist), Memorial University of Newfoundland,
Canada
- Amy Lovecraft (political scientist), University of Alaska
- Sarah Trainor (political scientist), University of Alaska
- Roz Naylor (resource economist), Stanford University
- Paul Baer (resource economist), Stanford University
- Orville Huntington, resident of Huslia; Vice-Chair, Alaska Native
Science Commission
- La’ona DeWilde, resident of Huslia
Contact information
- Stuart Chapin
Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska
Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
terry.chapin@uaf.edu
Funding for the preliminary assessment was provided by the U.S. National
Science Foundation for the period September 2003. The Bonanza Creek Long-term
Ecological Research Program has approved funding for the assessment to its
completion in 2010.
Links
http://www.hfi.uaf.edu/
Presentation
Journal publications
2003
- Chambers, S. and F.S. Chapin, III. 2003. Fire effects on surface-atmosphere
energy exchange in Alaskan black spruce ecosystems: Implications for
feedbacks to regional climate . J. Geophys. Res . D108:8145, doi: 10.1029/2001JD000530.
- Chapin, F.S., III. 2003. Effects of plant traits on ecosystem and
regional processes: A conceptual framework for predicting the consequences
of global change. Annals of Botany 91:455-463.
- Chapin, F.S., III, T.S. Rupp, A.M. Starfield, L. DeWilde, E.S. Zavaleta,
N. Fresco, and A.D. McGuire. 2003. Planning for resilience: Modeling
change in human-fire interactions in the Alaskan boreal forest. Frontiers
in Ecology and the Environment 1:255-261.
- Harden, J.W., R. Meier, C. Darnel, D.K. Swanson, and A.D. McGuire.
2003. Soil drainage and its potential for influencing wildfire. Pages
139-144 in Galloway, J.P., ed., Studies by the U.S. Geological Survey
in Alaska, 2001 . U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1678. Reston,
Virginia.
- Hinzman, L.D., M. Fukuda, D.V. Sandberg, F.S. Chapin, III and D.
Dash. 2003. FROSTFIRE: An experimental approach to predicting the climate
feedbacks from the changing boreal fire regime . Journal of Geophysical
Research-Atmospheres 108(D1), 8153, doi:10.1029/2001JD00415.
- Huntington, H.P., M. Berman, L. Cooper, L. Hamilton, L. Hinzman,
K. Kielland, E. Kirk, J. Kruse, A. Lynch, A.D. McGuire, D. Norton, and
A. Ogilvie. 2003. Human dimensions of the Arctic System: Interdisciplinary
approaches to the dynamics of social-environmental relationships. Arctic
Research of the United States , 17:59-69.
- McGuire, A.D., M. Sturm, and F.S. Chapin, III. 2003. Arctic Transitions
in the land-Atmosphere System (ATLAS): Background, objectives, results,
and future directions. Journal of Geophysical Research 107, 8147, doi:10.1029/2001JD001244
[printed 108(D1), 2003].
- Sandberg, D.V., F.S. Chapin, III, and L. Hinzman. 2003. FROSTFIRE:
a study of the role of fire in global change in the boreal forest. Pages
192-196 in K.E.M. Galley, R.C. Klinger, and N.G. Sugihara (eds.). Proceedings
of Fire Conference 2000: The First National Congress on Fire Ecology,
Prevention, and Management. Miscellaneous Publication No. 13 , Tall
Timbers Research Station, Tallahassee, FL.
- Turner, M.G., S.L. Collins, A.L. Lugo, J.J. Magnuson, T.S. Rupp,
and F.J. Swanson. 2003. Disturbance dynamics and ecological response:
The contribution of long-term ecological research. BioScience. 53(1):
46-56.
2004
- Chapin, F.S., III. T.V. Callaghan, Y. Bergeron, M. Fukuda, J.F.
Johnstone, G. Juday, and S.A. Zimov. 2004. Global change and the boreal
forest: Thresholds, shifting states or gradual change? Ambio 33: 361-365.
- Chapin, F.S., III, L. Henry, and L. DeWilde. 2004. Wilderness in
a changing Alaska: Managing for resilience. International Journal of
Wilderness 10: 9-13.
- Chapin, F.S., III, G. Peterson, F. Berkes, T.V. Callaghan, P. Angestam,
M. Apps, C. Beier, Y. Bergeron, A.-S. Crepin, K. Danell, T. Elmqvist,
C. Folke, B. Forbes, N. Fresco, G. Juday, J. Niemela, A. Shvidenko,
and G. Whiteman. 2004. Resilience and vulnerability of northern regions
to social and environmental change. Ambio 33:344-349.
- Csiszar, I., C.O. Justice, A.D. McGuire, M.A. Cochrane, D.P. Roy,
F. Brown, S.G. Conard, P.G.H. Frost, L. Giglio, C. Elvidge, M.D. Flannigan,
E. Kasischke, D.J. McRae, T.S. Rupp, B.J. Stocks, and D.L. Verbyla.
2004. Land use and fires. Chapter 19 (pages 329-350) in Land Change
Science: Observing, Monitoring, and Understanding Trajectories of Change
on the Earth‚s Surface . Edited by Gutman, G., Janetos, A.C., Justice,
C.O, Moran, E.F., Mustard, J.F., Rindfuss, R.R., Skole, D., Turner II,
B.L., and Cochrane, M.A. Dordrecht, Netherlands, Kluwer Academic Publishers.
- Forbes, B., N. Fresco, A. Shvedenko, K. Danell, and F.S. Chapin,
III. 2004. Geographic variations in anthropogenic drivers that influence
the vulnerability and resilience of high-latitude nations. Ambio 33:377-382.
- Haight, R.G., Cleland, D.T., Hammer, R., Radeloff, V.C., and T.S.
Rupp. 2004. Assessing fire risk in the wildland urban interface: the
case of northern lower Michigan. Journal of Forestry. 102(7):41-47.
- Johnstone, J. F., F.S. Chapin, III, J. Foote, S. Kemmett, K. Price,
and L. A. Viereck. 2004. Decadal observations of tree regeneration following
fire in boreal forests. Can. J. For. Res. 34:267-273.
- Keane, R.E., G.J. Cary, I.D. Davies, M.D. Flannigan, R.H. Gardner,
S. Lavorel, J.M. Lenihan, C. Li, and T.S. Rupp. 2004. A classification
of landscape fire succession models: spatial simulations of fire and
vegetation dynamics. Ecological Modelling. 179:3-27.
- McGuire, A.D., M. Apps, F.S. Chapin III, R. Dargaville, M.D. Flannigan,
E.S. Kasischke, D. Kicklighter, J. Kimball, W. Kurz, D.J. McRae, K.
McDonald, J. Melillo, R. Myneni, B.J. Stocks, D.L. Verbyla, and Q. Zhuang.
2004. Land cover disturbances and feedbacks to the climate system in
Canada and Alaska. Chapter 9 (pages 139 ˆ 161) in Land Change Science:
Observing, Monitoring, and Understanding Trajectories of Change on the
Earth's Surface. Edited by Gutman, G., Janetos, A.C., Justice, C.O,
Moran, E.F., Mustard, J.F., Rindfuss, R.R., Skole, D., Turner II, B.L.,
and Cochrane, M.A. Dordrecht, Netherlands, Kluwer Adademic Publishers.
- Natcher, D. C. 2004. Implications of fire policy on Native land
use in the Yukon Flats, Alaska. Human Ecology 32: 421-441.
- Ullsten, O., J. G. Speth, and F.S. Chapin, III. 2004. Options for
enhancing the resilience of northern countries to rapid social and environmental
change: A message to policy makers. Ambio 33:343.
2005
- Apps, M.A. and A.D. McGuire. 2005. Climate-Disturbance Interactions
in Boreal Forest Ecosystems. Peer-reviewed papers selected from the
IBFRA Conference, Fairbanks, Alaska, 3 – 6 May 2004. Canadian Journal
of Forest Research 35: 2073-2293.
- Calef, M. P., A.D. McGuire, H.E. Epstein, T.S. Rupp, and H.H. Shugart.
2005. Analysis of vegetation distribution in Interior Alaska and sensitivity
to climate change using a logistic regression approach. Journal of Biogeography
32:863-878.
- Chapin, F.S., III, M. Berman, T.V. Callaghan, P. Convey, A.-S. Crepin,
K. Danell, H. Ducklow, B. Forbes, G. Kofinas, A.D. McGuire, M. Nuttall,
R. Virginia, O. Young, and S. Zimov. 2005. Polar Systems. Pages 713-739
In Millennium Assessment (Ed.) Conditions and Trends. Island Press,
Washington.
- Duffy, P. A., John E. Walsh, Jonathan M. Graham, Daniel H. Mann,
and T. Scott Rupp (2005). Impacts of large-scale atmospheric-ocean variablilty
on Alaskan fire season severity. Ecological Applications, 15(4): 1317–1330.
- Hinzman, L.D., N.D. Bettez, W.R. Bolton, F.S. Chapin, III, M. B.
Dyurgerov, C. L. Fastie, B. Griffith, R.D. Hollister, A. Hope, H.P.
Huntington, A.M. Jensen, G.J. Jia, T. Jorgenson, D.L. Kane, D.R. Klein,
G. Kofinas, A.H. Lynch, A. H. Lloyd, A.D. McGuire, F.E. Nelson, M. Nolan,
W.C. Oechel, T.E. Osterkamp, C. H. Racine, V.E. Romanovsky, R.S. Stone,
D.A. Stow, M. Sturm, C.E. Tweedie, G.L. Vourlitis, M.D. Walker, D. A.Walker,
P.J. Webber, J. Welker, K.S. Winker, and K. Yoshikawa. 2005. Evidence
and implications of recent climate change in northern Alaska and other
arctic regions. Climatic Change 72(3)251-298.
- Huntington, O., and H.P.Huntington. 2005. “We hate fire”: understanding
statements on context. Naalaktuaqtuni Ilitchiruni-Lu/ Listening and
Learning: Alaska Native Science Commission Newsletter 5(2): 1-2.
- Maier, J.A.K., J. Ver Hoef, A.D. McGuire, R.T. Bowyer, L. Saperstein,
and H.A. Maier. 2005. Distribution and density of moose in relation
to landscape characteristics: Effects of scale. Canadian Journal of
Forest Research 35:2233-2243.
- Smithwick, E., M. Turner, M. Mack, and F.S. Chapin, III. 2005. Post-fire
soil N cycling in northern conifer forests affected by severe, stand-replacing
wildfires. Ecosystems 8:163-181.
2006
- Chapin, F.S., III, M. Hoel, S.R. Carpenter, J. Lubchenco, B. Walker,
T.V. Callaghan, C. Folke, S. Levin, K. G. Mäler, C. Nilsson, S. Barrett,
F. Berkes, A.-S. Crépin, K. Danell, T. Rosswall, D. Starrett, T. Xepapadeas,
and S.A. Zimov. 2006. Building resilience and adaptation to manage arctic
change. Ambio 35(4):198-202.
- Chapin, F.S., III, A.L. Lovecraft, E.S. Zavaleta, J. Nelson, M.D.
Robards, G.P. Kofinas, S.F. Trainor, G. Peterson, H.P. Huntington, and
R.L. Naylor. 2006. Policy strategies to address sustainability of Alaskan
boreal forests in response to a directionally changing climate. Proceedings
of the National Academy of Sciences doi:10.1073/pnas.0606955103.
- Chapin, F.S., III, L.A. Viereck, P. Adams, K. Van Cleve, C.L. Fastie,
R.A. Ott, D. Mann, and J.F. Johnstone. 2006. Successional processes
in the Alaskan boreal forest. Pages 100-120 In F.S. Chapin, III, M.
Oswood, K. Van Cleve, L.A. Viereck, and D.L. Verbyla (Eds.) Alaska’s
Changing Boreal Forest. Oxford University Press, New York.
- Fresco, N. L. 2006. Carbon sequestration in Alaska's boreal forest:
Planning for resilience in a changing landscape. PhD Dissertation, University
of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks.
- Hu, F.S., L.B. Brubaker, D.G. Gavin, P.E. Higuera, J.A. Lynch, T.S.
Rupp, AND W. Tinner. 2006. How climate and vegetation influence the
fire regime of the Alaskan boreal biome: the Holocene perspective. Mitigation
and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 11:829-846.
- Huntington, H. P., S.F. Trainor, D.C. Natcher, O.H. Huntington,
L. DeWilde, and F.S. Chapin, III. 2006. The significance of context
in community-based research: Understanding discussions about wildfire
in Huslia, Alaska. Ecology and Society 11 (1): 40. [online] URL:
http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss1/art40/.
- Johnstone, J.F. and F.S. Chapin, III. 2006. Effects of burn severity
on patterns of post-fire tree recruitment in boreal forests. Ecosystems
9:14-31.
- Johnstone, J.F. and F.S. Chapin, III. 2006. Fire interval effects
on successional trajectory in boreal forests of northwest Canada. Ecosystems
9:268-277.
- McGuire, A.D., and F.S. Chapin, III. 2006. Climate feedbacks in
the Alaskan boreal forest. Pages 309-322 in F.S. Chapin, III, M. Oswood,
K. Van Cleve, L.A. Viereck, and D.L. Verbyla (Eds.) Alaska’s Changing
Boreal Forest. Oxford University Press, New York.
- McGuire, A.D., and M. Apps. 2006. Climate-disturbance interactions
in boreal forest ecosystems. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for
Global Change 11:765-767.
- Sparrow, E.B., J.C. Dawe, and F.S. Chapin, III. 2006. Communication
of Alaskan boreal science with broader communities. Pages 323-331 in
F.S. Chapin, III, M. Oswood, K. Van Cleve, L.A. Viereck, and D.L. Verbyla
(Eds.) Alaska’s Changing Boreal Forest. Oxford University Press, New
York.
In press
- Amiro, B.D., A.L. Orchansky, A.G. Barr, T.A. Black, S.D. Chambers,
F.S. Chapin III, M.L. Goulden, M. Litvak, H. Liu, J.H. McCaughey, and
J.T. Randerson. 2006. The effect of post-fire stand age on the boreal
forest energy balance. Agriculture and Forest Meteorology. In press.
- Cary, G.J., R.E. Keane, R.H. Gardner, S. Lavorel, M.D. Flannigan,
I.D. Davies, C. Li, J.M. Lenihan, T.S. Rupp, F. Mouillot. In press.
Comparison of the sensitivity of landscape-fire-succession models to
variation in terrain, fuel pattern, climate and weather. Landscape Ecology.
- Chapin, F.S., III, M.D. Robards, H.P. Huntington, J.F. Johnstone,
S.F. Trainor, G.P Kofinas R.W. Ruess, N. Fresco, D.C. Natcher, and R.L.
Naylor. In press. Directional changes in ecological communities and
social-ecological systems: A framework for prediction based on Alaskan
examples. American Naturalist.
- Chapin, F.S., III, G.M. Woodwell, J.T. Randerson, G.M. Lovett, E.B.
Rastetter, D.D. Baldocchi, D.A. Clark, M.E. Harmon, D.S. Schimel, R.
Valentini, C. Wirth, J.D. Aber, J.J. Cole, M.L. Goulden, J.W. Harden,
M. Heimann, R.W. Howarth, P.A. Matson, A.D. McGuire, J.M. Melillo, H.A.
Mooney, J.C. Neff, R.A. Houghton, M.L. Pace, M.G. Ryan, S.W. Running,
O.E. Sala, W.H. Schlesinger, and E.-D. Schulze. In press. Reconciling
carbon-cycle concepts, terminology, and methodology. Ecosystems 9.
- DeWilde, L., and F.S. Chapin, III. In press. Human impacts on the
fire regime of Interior Alaska: Interactions among fuels, ignition sources,
and fire suppression. Ecosystems 9.
- Keane, R.E., G.J. Cary, I.D. Davies, M.D. Flannigan, R.H. Gardner,
S. Lavorel, J.M. Lenihan, C. Li, T.S. Rupp. In press. Understanding
global fire dynamics by classifying and comparing spatial models of
vegetation and fire dynamics. In: Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing
World. Edited by J. Canadell, D. Pataki, L. Pitelka. Springer-Verlag.
- McGuire, A.D., F.S. Chapin, III, J.E. Walsh, and C. Wirth. In press.
Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications
for the global climate system. Annual Review of Environment and Resources.
- McGuire, A.D., F. S. Chapin III, C. Wirth, M. Apps, J. Bhatti, T.
Callaghan, T. R. Christensen, J. S. Clein, M. Fukuda, T. Maximov, A.
Onuchin, A. Shvidenko, and E. Vaganov. 2005. Responses of High Latitude
Ecosystems to Global Change: Potential Consequences for the Climate
System. Chapter in Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing World. Cambridge
University Press. In press.
- Rupp, T.S., Olson, M., Henkelman, J., Adams, L., Dale, B., Joly,
K., Collins, W., and A.M. Starfield. In press. Simulating the influence
of a changing fire regime on caribou winter foraging habitat. Ecological
Applications.
- Trainor, S.F., F.S. Chapin, III, H.P. Huntington, G. Kofinas, and
D.C. Natcher. In press. Arctic climate impacts and cross-scale linkages:
Environmental justice in Canada and the United States. Local Environment:
International Journal of Justice and Sustainability.
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